What am I looking at?
Q-Day is a shorthand for the period when a quantum computer could break widely used encryption (such as RSA-2048). This page shows a living estimate of when that might arrive, plus the hardware milestones that move the estimate.
Consensus years
Expert-weighted estimate of when cryptographically relevant quantum computers may arrive (pessimistic / central / optimistic).
Expert-weighted estimate of when cryptographically relevant quantum computers may arrive (pessimistic / central / optimistic).
Score 1-10
How close a hardware result is to threatening today’s encryption. Higher = more cryptographically relevant.
How close a hardware result is to threatening today’s encryption. Higher = more cryptographically relevant.
Logical qubits (LQ)
The hard metric. Roughly ~4,000 fault-tolerant logical qubits are needed to threaten RSA-2048.
The hard metric. Roughly ~4,000 fault-tolerant logical qubits are needed to threaten RSA-2048.
Milestones
Verified hardware events we track after human review - not raw press hype.
Verified hardware events we track after human review - not raw press hype.
Live Q-Day Clock
Countdown to Q-Day
Driven by our weighted consensus estimate. Cycles through pessimistic, consensus, and optimistic bands.
CONSENSUS
--Years
--Months
--Days
--Hours
--Minutes
--Seconds
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Source: /v1/estimate · mid-year of selected band
Q-Day Consensus Estimate
When might encryption-breaking quantum computers arrive? Three bands from institutional and expert inputs.
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Total Milestones
-
in database (2019-2026)
High-Impact (≥5)
-
cryptographic relevance ≥5/10
Best Logical Qubits
~100
of 4,000 needed (2.5%)
12-Month Trend
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Logical Qubit Progress to RSA-2048 Threshold
~100 demonstrated / 4,000 required for Shor's algorithm at RSA-2048
2.5%
1 LQ
2021
12 LQ
2024
100 LQ ←
NOW
1,000 LQ
~2028?
4,000 LQ
Q-Day
Recent High-Impact Milestones
Sorted by date desc · Cryptographic relevance ≥4| Date | Vendor / Lab | Milestone | Type | LQ | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Consensus Estimate Sources
Official body and expert inputs to weighted consensus
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Vendor Roadmap Tracker
Announced targets vs current status
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API Access
Programmatic access to milestones, alerts, and Mosca feed data
Full API access requires an approved subscription. We do not publish a free endpoint catalogue on this dashboard. Request access from the pricing page; after approval you will receive an API key by email.
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