{"generated_at":"2026-08-01T02:11:42.984Z","consensus":{"pessimisticYear":2028,"centralYear":2032,"optimisticYear":2037,"confidence":"low","notes":"Weighted consensus from CISA, NSA, Mosca, ENISA — Q2 2026 update","lastUpdated":"2026-06-01"},"years_to_q_day":{"pessimistic":2,"central":6,"optimistic":11},"sources":[{"source":"CISA-2024","pessimisticYear":2028,"centralYear":2033,"optimisticYear":2037,"confidence":"medium","sourceUrl":"https://www.cisa.gov/quantum","estimateDate":"2024-03-01"},{"source":"Mosca-GlobalRisk-2023","pessimisticYear":2028,"centralYear":2031,"optimisticYear":2036,"confidence":"medium","sourceUrl":"https://globalriskinstitute.org/quantum-threat-timeline/","estimateDate":"2023-11-01"},{"source":"ENISA-2023","pessimisticYear":2030,"centralYear":2035,"optimisticYear":2040,"confidence":"low","sourceUrl":"https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/quantum-threat-landscape-report","estimateDate":"2023-07-01"},{"source":"NSA-2022","pessimisticYear":2030,"centralYear":2034,"optimisticYear":2038,"confidence":"medium","sourceUrl":"https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/","estimateDate":"2022-09-01"}],"expert_estimates":[{"expertName":"Dr. Michele Mosca","affiliation":"University of Waterloo / GlobalRisk Institute","pessimisticYear":2028,"centralYear":2031,"optimisticYear":2036,"weight":2,"date":"2023-11-01","sourceUrl":"https://globalriskinstitute.org/quantum-threat-timeline/"},{"expertName":"John Preskill","affiliation":"Caltech","pessimisticYear":2032,"centralYear":2037,"optimisticYear":2042,"weight":1.5,"date":"2023-06-01","sourceUrl":"https://quantumfrontiers.com"}],"context":{"current_best_physical_qubits":"~1,386 (IBM Flamingo, Q3 2025)","current_best_logical_qubits":"~100 (Quantinuum/Microsoft, Q1 2026)","rsa2048_requirement":"4,000+ fault-tolerant logical qubits at <10^-6 error rate","progress_trajectory":"ACCELERATING"}}